Intel expects to lose further market share to AMD by 2023

At the Evercore ISI TMT Summit, Intel admitted that it risks continuing to lose market share. In the latest report, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that he believes that AMD will continue to plunder the market share that originally belonged to Intel, and it is difficult to restore this trend in the short term.

During the talk, the Intel CEO talked about how the dramatic changes in the PC market have affected not only their business, but the business of other companies in the tech market. He went on to say that their own product execution contributed to unfavorable earnings last quarter, but that much of the change in outlook was driven by market conditions.

Since then, I think things are as we expected, or even worse. So we gave an expectation on the call that Intel has never done. We will always give you a number. This time, we have given a range that takes into account the uncertainty of the overall economy at the time. I said we had a trend towards the lower end of this quarter and full year range, right?

Overall, it’s worse than we forecast earlier this year, but still within the quarterly and yearly range. But life outside is really tough. Many OEMs are changing views and outlooks, channel inventory adjustments, and many economic issues to address.

As we said on the earnings call, we’re shipping below the end-market consumption rate right now, right? What we’re seeing is a build-up of inventory. I would say, it does give us the outlook for growth in the fourth quarter. We said Q2 and Q3 were the bottom. We still see growth in the fourth quarter as some inventory depletion begins to reverse. Overall, the fourth quarter was a better quarter. So all of that combined, we can say we’re in that range, but a little more modest than what we said at the beginning or on the second quarter call.

Basically, every other announcement is a confirmation of what we’ve said so far in the industry. With a few exceptions, there are very unique proprietary stances on short nodes and technologies, and everything else has only this one firm view.

Intel expects to lose further market share to AMD by 2023, aims to regain growth by 2025

When he talked about how the company sees AMD’s development, he said that competitors have done well, and while Intel is still at a process node/technology disadvantage (10nm vs. 5nm), the company is moving through the 2023 Emerald Rapids and Catch up with future products like Granite Rapids / Sierra Forest in 2024. He mentioned that the advantage of Sapphire Rapids lies in artificial intelligence. Sapphire Rapids is said to have better performance and power than AMD’s competition, but it’s not immediately obvious that his goal is to get a product out quickly that is not only better, but better than the competition.

However, it takes time to launch products, and Intel knows they will keep losing market share for a long time and throughout 2023 and even 2024. This is because AMD is putting more pressure in almost all areas. As a result, he expects Intel to be competitive until 2025 at the earliest, with the hope of reversing its declining share until 2026.

IT House learned that AMD has won share from Intel in the server market for 13 consecutive quarters, and its server market share has now reached 20.2%. That share could grow another 5 percent or more in the future, according to Intel’s calculations. A return to market strength will have to wait until 2024 for the Sierra Forest processors.

Finally, Pat Gelsinger emphasized that Intel will continue to withdraw from businesses that it believes have no room for growth, such as mobile modem chips and Optane. Internally, Intel is also appointing a new leadership group and preparing for a larger corporate restructuring that will place all of its projects under a coherent development approach under a new PLC model called Palladius.